How Population Growth Predictions in Virginia and US may affect our Local Real Estate Market …
You may have seen the Washington Post article “Far From the City, Far From Recovery” published in May 2016. It talked about how Loudoun County’s suburbs were D.C. area’s hottest housing market until nightmare commutes and a revitalized District flipped a housing switch.
After reading this, I couldn’t help but think about the real estate market in our area—specifically some of our larger developments. We know I-66 can be grueling, and studies are indicating that millennials, as well as retirees, are flocking to urban housing. What does this mean for the future of the real estate market for our suburban homes, in our amenity-filled neighborhoods?
Well, around the same time I came across an interesting article that featured data released from Coopercenter.org—a UVA demographics research group. New studies were released in May with some interesting population projections for the 50 states including D.C. and Virginia. Here are some highlights:
- The U.S. population growth is projected to slow down from nearly 10% over the 2000-2010 decade to 6% between 2030-2040. Similar trends are also expected from most states.
- Back in 2000, California and six of the top ten largest states (by population) belonged to the North. By 2040, five of the top ten are expected to be in the South.
- New England will become the oldest region in the country. By 2030, a quarter or more of the residents in New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine will be 65 or older. Maine continues to have the highest median age in the country, with half of its population aged 48 or older by 2040.
- The projected top ten largest states by 2040 include Virginia as number 10. Also on the list are Texas, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia.
- Fastest growth is projected to take place in Washington D.C. (fastest), Texas, Colorado, Utah, and Florida over the next 25 years.
- The states with the highest decline in projected population are West Virginia, Vermont, Maine, Rhode Island and Illinois.
Why the shift?
The study of age distribution is a key factor in these projections. In addition to births and immigration, projected growth is increasingly associated with life longevity. Five factors that contribute to changing age distribution of U.S. population include:
- Baby Boomer Generation Aging
- Increased Life Expectancy
- Lower Birth Rates
- Delayed Childbearing
- Reduced Immigration
The bottom line
Even though population growth nationally will be down, our entire region is projected to grow. While urban living may be appealing to many, there is still a great demand for a suburban lifestyle, especially with great schools, retail and industrial growth and infrastructure improvements.
See my 2016 Year to Date Real Estate Market Watch comparing Haymarket and Gainesville to Washington DC.
I’m not worried.
RELATED: See Why This Gainesville Subdivision Stands Apart from Others
Thinking of moving to the Haymarket area? Call Bryan Garcia of EXIT Heritage Realty @ or email Bryan at BryanGarcia@exitheritage.com and he can show you around!
See this article in the Summer 2016 of Haymarket Homeowner: