The Big Short: Gradual Real Estate Recovery in Haymarket Area

A look at the real estate recovery in the Haymarket Area from 2009 to 2015

Logo_oficial_de_The_Big_ShortI recently had the opportunity to see The Big Short, a film by Adam McKay about the housing bubble collapse in the mid-2000s. This film is particularly relevant for many Haymarket area homeowners who have lived here for several years or bought or sold a home during this period. For some, seeing this movie stung.

Home values fell more than 20% nationally from their peak in 2006 until things started to turn around a few years later. While the collapse affected millions nationwide, there has been a gradual, steady recovery. Some analysts are claiming full recovery in certain areas. However, our area—and I include Northern Virginia and D.C. Metro—was affected particularly hard in comparison to the rest of the country.

Below is a Zillow graph of the Median Sold Price of All Homes from 2006 to November 2015. The green line represents the U.S., which does show a distinct dip and rise. However, Haymarket and Gainesville (orange and yellow respectively) show a much sharper drop—more than 20%!

National & Local Median Sold Price – 2006 to 2015

Zillow Chart

For my real estate market watch report this issue, I am taking a close look at the housing market and the real estate recovery in Haymarket and Gainesville in terms of Median Sold Price from 2009 to 2015.

We have been on the road to recovery, but will we ever see the inflated prices of 2006? Eventually yes, depending on the house and neighborhood, but we still have a few years to go.

To give you an idea of just how much prices dropped from 2006 to 2009 locally, here is the Median Sold Price for the random month of June in 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009—a strong month for real estate:

Median Sold Price – All Home Types

June 2006      Haymarket      Gainesville
June 2006      $608,614            $522,115
June 2007      $472,387            $420,000
June 2008      $418,533            $350,000
June 2009      $388,913            $295,770 (ouch!)

Below is a chart showing the overall annual increase in the Median Sold Price for all home types in Haymarket and Gainesville as tracked from 2009. You will see significant differences just between Haymarket and Gainesville. A modest, but steady increase is predicted in 2016.

MW-Issue6-2015

See this article in the print version of Haymarket Homeowner: